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This site (freebuck.com) came up in a Google search this morning, and it was just full of good cheer. Enjoy! In the future (if the guy is reading this), please link back to the blog).
2010 will also be challenging for G7 Sovereigns as they TRY to rollover inconceivable sums of existing debt while borrowing NEW money to pay for the WELFARE states’ spending. Trillions of dollars of borrowing challenges lie directly ahead; let’s look at some illustrations of the rollover requirements for Germany, France, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Greece fromwww.newyorktimes.com and Reggie Middleton’s Boom Bust blog;
Debt
These are just the rollover requirements for the United States and do not include NEW BORROWING of $1.6 TRILLION. So, a total of OVER $3.5 Trillion is required, providing that the deficits are as projected by the CBO (are they ever accurate?). That’s almost $300 Billion a month, or $10 Billion a day (10,000 million a day). Mind numbing numbers! Inconceivable sums. Now let’s look at European rollovers from Reggie Middleton:
Debt
Think of the US issuance and add this to it. Where will the money come from? The printing press in one form or another. That’s just the rollovers; now let’s look at NEW issuance to cover 2010 DEFICITS from www.forbes.com:
Debt
This is called INSANITY. Only India, China and the emerging world are growing in REAL terms, the rest of the borrowers are DEADBEAT welfare states with shrinking incomes and economies, when properly adjusted for inflation. How the US and Europe are going to navigate the rest of the year without some MISHAP is inconceivable. That will be the appearance of the “when HOPE to FEAR” moment we are looking for in 2010. This DOES not include BANK and brokerage debt (totaling OVER a trillion dollars) which must roll.
Well, the reason why it seems like China is growing in real terms is because they are blowing a BIG BUBBLE! It is not sustainable, and when it pops it will actually push them back some. See
- Can China Control the “Side-Effects” of its Stimulus-Led Growth? Let's Look at the Facts
- Signs of a China Credit and Real Asset Bubble Are Now Unmistakable!
- It Doesn't Take a Genius to Figure Out How This Will End
- It Doesn't Take a Genius to Figure Out How This Will End
- Economic contractions AND rising prices, dare Reggie utter the "I" word - Enter a global phenomenon
- China Macro Update
I actually suggest you read the entire post, for although some of the charts and info are dated (the circumstances have changed somewhat) and other bits of info are anecdotal, it does give a good background of why anyone should be bearish - http://www.freebuck.com/articles/tandros/100326tandros.htm
