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"The slope of the US line as of the end of 2010 is much steeper than your extension of it. In fact, the current slope looks to hit bottom about 2018, where your chart of property overhang from 2010 predicts the property bubble finally will shrivel."

The problem is that prediction, like most, is compete conjecture. Mathematical slopes are notoriously unrealistic in projecting such, and have simply been used in this case for the sake of illustration. The US commercial market hit pre-bubble levels faster because it most likely trended up faster as well. There is still much too much supply in relation to demand in the market and interest rates (the prime macro determinant of CRE values) are at historic lows. They really have no way to go but up, most likely way up. Thus you should expect an explosion in cap rates, thus a severe compression in price going forward. Yes, severe even in comparison to what we have here. Remember, the boom occurred with a very favorable rate and lending environment, something we will not have for some time.