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By studying swings on stocks alone (not options) I've been able to do okay over the last twelve months. It's been awhile since I've done options, and I own some shares of FRO and would not mind getting some protective puts. Or shorting the stock, even while I hold it long, if it looks sensible to do so.

However, as of today (1/9/09) it appears that already the prices for the Aug 09 puts on FRO with strike of 35 range from 9.60-10.20... While this shipper may not be in the best shape, it is owned or controlled by a billionaire who owns several other companies and can likely make sure that this one does not go kaput (unlike some of the banks you were able to short earlier). Also, before I bought into FRO I read that typically the owner pays himself out of the dividend (and will cut it if he has to but is obviously reluctant to do so). Last but not least, although I expect oil will be lower on average, this year versus last, I think most purchasers of this stock are going to be reluctant to sell it below it's 52 week low of 25. Most people trust that OPEC / others will eventually push up the price of oil to at least $50 / barrel. It is also possible that, all the oil shippers could raise their prices too (to make up for the lowered demand of their ships). For the Aug 09 puts with a strike of 35 to be worthwhile at roughly 10/each, wouldn't FRO have to drop down from today's 31 (as of appx noon ET) to appx 21 or less? Anything is possible, and those who already have positions on your reco are hopefully able to profit sooner than someone entering today, but I think that there will be considerable resistance at $20 and below (perhaps you are already considering that as an exit point). Considerable enough that I think I can find some easier pickings elsewhere, and will wait and watch instead of jump in on this one. I look forward to any response and regardless, I do enjoy your site!