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Monday, 03 May 2010 18:26

Will the Greece-borne Sovereign Debt Malaise End with the Centi-billion Euro Bailout? Well, It Depends On How Well Lipstick Looks on a PIIG(S)

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The European crisis as portrayed in the news...

Greece Gets $146 Billion Rescue in EU, IMF Package (Update1) May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Euro-region ministers agreed to a 110 billion-euro ($146 billion)
rescue package for Greece to prevent a default and stop the worst crisis ...- 2010-05-03

Euro Declines on Concern Greece Bailout May Fail to Get Support Europe’s common currency slumped versus most of its 16 major counterparts as German
Chancellor Angela Merkel began making a public case for her citizens to ... - 2010-05-03

European Stock-Index Futures Decline as Greece Gets Bailout ... rose. TNT NV, Europe’s second-biggest express-delivery company, may be
active after reporting first-quarter earnings. Xstrata ... - 2010-05-03

Merkel Makes Public Case for Germany to Aid Greece (Update1) May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel began making a public case for Germany
to aid Greece, saying she’s confident of gaining parliamentary approval ... - 2010-05-03 Hmmm. We shouldn't celebrate a bailout until the bailout is actually ratified, should we?

Iceland Is Better Off Than Greece Thanks to Krona (Update2) May 3 (Bloomberg)

Iceland, which before Greece had been the western nation hardest hit by the global credit crisis, avoided a meltdown as bad as the Greeks’ in part because it had its own currency, Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson said.

“Oh my God, I wouldn’t want to be in the position they’re in,” Sigfusson said in an interview. “The position Greece is in is quite different from the position Iceland is or was in; Greece has the euro and we can debate whether or not that’s good for them for the time being.”

Iceland’s financial crisis started at the end of 2008, when its three biggest banks failed, resulting in a sell-off of the krona that culminated in a depreciation as deep as 80 percent against the euro offshore. The central bank imposed capital controls to stem volatility at an exchange rate about 45 percent weaker than before the crisis. The krona slump instantly ended 22 quarters of trade deficits, helping a recovery that saw the economy grow 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the third.

“It won’t be easy for Greece to get out of the trouble it’s in,” Sigfusson said.

 

Gartman Says Greece Default `Inevitable,' Will Leave EMU: Video ... of the Gartman Letter, talks with Bloomberg's Maryam Nemazee about market reaction
to the 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) bailout plan for Greece approved by ...
- 2010-05-03 Play Yeah, that's pretty much what Reggie Says as well.

Now, if anyone believes that this is good news.... Assuming Greece does get its bailout (it has not even been voted on yet), it sends an ominous sign. The EU has had to rely on the IMF (the American savior of 3rd world nations) to help it pull a EMU member totally out of the markets in order to secure financing! In addition, they have suspended the use of 3rd party credit ratings in order to (literally) accept government junk bonds as collateral.

The only thing that can help Greece is equity of some form or fashion. This form will likely take the shape of default or restructuring. To make matters worse is that Spain, Ireland, and Italy are up next and they have BIG issues. Can the EU afford another $200 billion euros each to pull those companies out of the market as well.

I strong suggest you read "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! and Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!.

One really shouldn't beleive everything you hear in the media.

  1. Didn't the Greek PM say Greece didn't have its hand out for a bailout?
  2. Didn't Merkel say Germany would not participate in a bailout?
  3. Didn't Produ say the crisis is over and the region is safe (hence, no need for further bailing out)?
  4. Didn't Sarkozy say that it would be a failure for the Eurozone to have the IMF bailout Greece?

Despite all of this, people still take newsbytes from the pop media and sovereign leaders as gospel?

The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, to date:

1.      The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis – introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.

2.      What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? – illustrates the potential for the domino effect

3.      The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. – attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe’s sovereign nations can effect even the perceived “stronger” nations.

4.      The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries

5.      The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!

6.      The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???

7.      I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall

8.      Smoking Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware!

9.      Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?

10.   “Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!

11.   Germany Finally Comes Out and Says, “We’re Not Touching Greece” – Well, Sort of…

12.   The Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word “First” Etched on the Side of Their Domino

13.   As I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial Crisis

14.   Once You Catch a Few EU Countries “Stretching the Truth”, Why Should You Trust the Rest?

15.   Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!

16.   Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe

17.   Moody’s Follows Suit Behind Our Analysis and Downgrades 4 Greek Banks

18.   The EU Has Rescued Greece From the Bond Vigilantes,,, April Fools!!!

19.   How BoomBustBlog Research Intersects with That of the IMF: Greece in the Spotlight

20.   Grecian News and its Relevance to My Analysis

21.   A Summary and Related Thoughts on the IMF’s “Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis

22.   Euro-Gossip Debunked, Courtesy of Trichet and the IMF!

23.   Greek Soap Opera Update: Back to the Bailout That Was Never Needed?

24.   Many Institutions Believe Ireland To Be A Model of Austerity Implementation But the Facts Beg to Differ!

25.   As I Explicitly Forwarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!

26.   LTTP (Late to the Party), Euro Style: Goldman Recommends Betting On Contagion Risk In Portuguese, Spanish And Italian Banks 3 Months After BoomBustBlog

Latest Pan-European Sovereign Risk Subscription Research – The Good Stuff!!!

Actionable Intelligence Note For All Paying Subscribers on European Bank Research – This was certainly one very timely call!!!
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf

A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional

Ireland public finances projections_040710

Spain public finances projections_033010

UK Public Finances March 2010

Italy public finances projection

Greece Public Finances Projections

Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe

Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet

Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note

Last modified on Wednesday, 05 May 2010 19:11
Tagged under
  • Global Macro
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  • Current Affairs
  • UK and Eurozone
  • Asset Securitization Crisis

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