spain finances excerptspain finances excerpt
As suggested in the document, if one refers to the blog post Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!, you will find that not only has Spain apparently fabricated a fairy tale of potential prosperity based upon the projections of the IMF and EC, but the IMF and EC have been nothing but fairy tale projections themselves.
I have been bearish on the Spanish banking system since January of 2009 (reference Reggie Middleton on the New Global Macro – the Forensic Analysis of a Spanish Bank ), and after a trip to the Costa del Sol by way of Málaga during the boom times are shortly thereafter, the reasons should be most obvious.
We now have a rash of new Spanish bank and sovereign research which has returned between 300% and 400% over the last few months.
std opt. research time purchasestd opt. research time purchase
Needless to say, as the situation in the EU deteriorates upon the widespread dissemination of the knowledge that BoomBustBloggers have been trading off of for quarters now, I feel the options will spike in value significantly!
I invite those who don’t subscribe to BoomBustBlog to please be sure to peruse our entire collection of free analysis on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.
Subscribers should review the ample Spanish research we have amassed on the crisis, its origins and opportunities avaiable:
Sovereign Debt Exposure of European Insurers and Reinsurers
Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final – Pro & Institutional
Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final -Retail-
Sovereign Contagion Model – Pro & Institutional (1003.48 kB 2010-05-04 12:30:48) – this is an original tour-de-force, a proprietary model incorporating social unrest/socio-economic stratification, cross border economic contagion, financial contagion transmitted through the banking system, and foreign claims of the myriad players in question in order to ascertain who is at most risk and what order said players may fall, if they will at all. -
Sovereign Contagion Model – Retail (961.43 kB 2010-05-04 12:32:46) -
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) Addendum – Pro (569.55 kB 2010-01-27 16:52:36) -
Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final – Pro & Institutional (934.65 kB 2010-05-13 00:11:32) -
Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final -Retail (641.14 kB 2010-05-13 00:10:33) -
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note (519.4 kB 2010-02-09 02:48:06)
Please be sure to peruse our entire collection of free analysis on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.
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About two weeks ago, I queried... Why Does Everyone Believe Spain Is About To Run To the EU/IMF For Help? It’s Math, Not Speculation! Wednesday, June 16th, 2010
The EU Denies Planning Spain Credit Line with IMF, US, although rumors and leaks are propping in more places that a Swiss damn being plugged with a bunch of slender, fair fingers of those many blond maidens – after all, Greece did not want and was not looking for aid either. That trillion dollar bailout fund was the result of a bunch of politicians with too much money on their hands having absolutely nothing else to do with their time.
Cliff Wachtel gathers much of the evidence:
After 2 German newspapers reported that Spain
was seeking aid, now add a Spanish newspaper, El Economista, as the third to report a coming aid package for Spain, after 2 German papers reported this last week. All reports have been denied by the Spanish Government, which is rapidly losing credibility as the reports build. See details here from Bloomberg.
Yesterday, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine, citing an unnamed source in Berlin, reported that Spain was discussing a bailout with EU officials following last week’s freeze in interbank lending as markets have lost confidence in the Spanish banking sector. Spain denied the report
, did Greece had done the same thing earlier, so EU credibility isn’t what it once was. If the allegations prove true, look for A LOT more downside in risk markets. This was the second such report, the first was last week from from FT Deutschland
Remember that just last week Spain had a 3 year bond sale at an average yield of 3.32%, roughly double the yield needed to sell 3 year bonds as recently as April, an ominous sign given that Spain needs to sell about € 25 bln in bonds in July. It is unclear how long Spain can continue to withstand a doubling of its borrowing costs, which will counteract efforts to cut its deficit.
Cliff provides significantly more anecdotal evidence of an impending Spanish bailout in the link above. I harped on the increase in expenses yesterday:
And for those of you who favor a little tabloid style drama in our lives, I bring you the European Octopus known as Banco Santadar, the cousin of the America Squid...
Throw a Little Conspiracy Theory into the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis and an Impending Spanish Bank Collapse and Who Needs TV For Entertainment?
For good measure, a quick review of nasty haircuts...
Introducing the Not So Stylish Portuguese Haircut Analysis Wednesday, June 2nd, 2010
For those who feel that the simple application of arithmetic and math amounts to “Doomsday Scenarios”, Fear-mongering, and vultures in the market place, I present to you BoomBustBlog’s scenario analysis of the Portuguese Haircut.
You may manage your subscription options from your profile.
You think those are ugly? You ain’t seen nothing yet!
The Mathematical Truth Concerning Portugal’s Debt Situation
Before I start, any individual or entity that disagrees with the information below is quite welcome to dispute it. I simply ask that you com with facts and analysis and have them grounded in reality so I cannot right another “Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!“. In other words, come with the truth, or at lease your closest simulacrum of it.
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