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Thursday, 29 July 2010 16:40

Austerity Measures in Greece Are Much Easier Said Than Done: War Time Proclamations, Riots, and Tear Gas... Yeah, Its Working Just Fine

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A while ago I attempted to demonstrate the social and political difficulties of attempting to implement drastic austerity measures on an unwilling public. In short, it will test both the resolve and the durability of the government in question. We even went so far as to model the probability of failure and the consequent financial and economic contagion to be spread to other sovereign nations tied through the banking and trade transmission lines, among other things. (pic below from the Guardian)

Greek truck drivers clash with riot police in AthensGreek truck drivers clash with riot police in Athens

Well, according to imarketnews.com, the Greek government is facing its test of temerity: Greek Government Invokes Emergency Powers To End Truck Strike

ATHENS (MNI) - In a very rare move, the Greek government Wednesday invoked a national emergency provision to force striking fuel-tanker drivers go back to work.

The government announced it would issue the civil mobilization order, normally used in times of war or national disaster, and send letters to each of the truck drivers ordering them to report to duty. If they fail to comply, they could face criminal charges and up to five years of jail time.

The drivers had been on strike for three days through Wednesday, protesting a government effort to open up their profession, which is part of the austerity package agreed by Greece in exchange for up to E100 billion in loans from the Eurozone and the IMF.

Earlier Wednesday, discussions between the truckers union and the socialist government had collapsed and drivers vowed to continue the strike indefinitely. They complain that under the government plan, licenses to new drivers would be issued for much less than they paid, thereby putting them at a disadvantage.

The government said it will not back down and will table the draft bill to liberalize the sector this week. Under the terms of the EMU/IMF bailout plan, the sector must open up by the end of September.

About 70% of gas station owners say they have run out of supplies, while shortages of food and other goods have also been reported, affecting tourism at peak season.

The drivers' strike coincided with the arrival of the so-called "troika" officials from the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF, who have been inspecting the Greek economy since Monday and will continue doing so for the next seven days. The officials will determine whether Greece's deficit cutting plan is on track and whether the country may therefore receive a second loan installment in September, worth 9 billion euros.

Of course, the Greek government is not going to allow itself to be bullied by something as mundane as labor rights, so they commence to firing tear gas into the crowd, as per the Guardian:

Greek truck drivers clash with riot police in Athens. Photograph: John Kolesidis/Reuters

The stand-off between striking truck drivers and authorities in Greece intensified today hours after the government issued an emergency order to force protesters back to work.

With fuel shortages stranding thousands of tourists and disrupting supplies of food and medicines nationwide, prime minister George Papandreou resorted to emergency legislation, more usually used at times of war or great natural disaster, to end the walk-out.

But hopes of a return to normal were quickly dashed when riot police fired tear gas at thousands of truckers gathered outside the transport ministry this morning.

"The order is coming through to [drivers] but I have no idea how they are going to react to it," said Giorgos Stamos, a member of the truck drivers' union. "It is highly unusual that after just three days of going on strike we should be mobilised in this way."

The ruling socialists called for the mobilisation – the fourth time since the collapse of military rule in 1974 that such an order has been issued – as it became clear that Greece was facing a public health crisis because of the strike.

On islands, where fuel supplies have totally run out, tourists could be seen abandoning rented cars by the side of the road while yachts remained docked in harbours or drifted out at sea.

Under the order – which followed a plea by the Greek Tourist Association to stop the strike – authorities were given the go-ahead to requisition vehicles and services, with the owners and drivers of trucks being told they had to resume work or face stiff fines.

"To allow the strike to continue would threaten the normal functioning of health and welfare services and public order," the government announced.

The mayhem began on Monday when some 33,000 licensed truck drivers walked off the job in protest at government plans to open up the freight industry, one of many 'closed–shop' professions blamed for keeping the Greek economy isolated and uncompetitive.

The debt-stricken country is under intense pressure from the EU and IMF to make the changes – a condition of the €110bn (£92bn) of emergency loans it received from eurozone nations and the Washington-based body in May.

It should be obvious to most by now that the successful implementation of draconian austerity measures are more academic than applied at this point, and even if there were successfully implemented, the basis of such plans have been based on optimistic "untruths" to say the least (see Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!). Expect a restructuring or default in Greece's near future.

And once again, a snapshot of where we'll be going from that point...

Most analysis looks at gross claims between countries, which of course can be very illuminating, but also tends to leave out many salient points and important risks/exposures.

foreign claims of PIIGSforeign claims of PIIGSforeign claims of PIIGS

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File Icon Greece Public Finances Projections
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  • icon Sovereign Contagion Model - Retail (961.43 kB 2010-05-04 12:32:46)
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  • A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina
Last modified on Thursday, 29 July 2010 16:45
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