120
1024x768
Normal
0
false
false
false
EN-US
X-NONE
X-NONE
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
As I have mentioned before, I am looking
for avenues to syndicate the content of my blog. I know I am biased, but I
think this blog delivers top notch, timely and unique content. It being my
blog, I am probably not the most objective judge… Many of you came to this blog
from Seeking Alpha,
where I was a contributor. It appears as if I have done something to piss them
off, for they have not ran any articles lately and have not returned my emails.
I’m pretty sure the reason is my complaining about the changing of the content
of my articles, something that I cannot tolerate. The editors that I dealt with
were always very professional and polite though, and I would like to make that
clear. Nevertheless, being forced to gather my own eyeballs may have been the
best thing that has happened to this blog. Let me tell you why…
The possible offense (I am not quite
sure why I am not getting return emails or articles ran) probably came from my
linking to a very interesting discussion on Seeking Alpha’s business model,
editorial practices (of which I complained in the actual linking), and
blogonomics in general. You can read my comment here
(you may have to scroll up a bit to see it). The actual discourse that I linked
to is here,
and stems from a little beef that Barry Ritholz, the popular blogger, analysts
and CNBC contributor had with SA over some of the exact same issued that I had.
I recommend those interested in blogonomics give it a glance. Keep in mind that
I
image001.png
(being the stuck up, conceited bastard that I am) truly believe that a steady
stream of buy side quality, forensic research is a rarity on the web, hence I
often lapse into a state of actually believing this blog’s content has some
value. The argument made by SA’s founder about the blogger’s incremental effort
in content redistribution is a little murky, but I will get into that at a late
time. My content easily costs me into the six digits to produce, thus it is not
cheap. Although there are some very good blogs out there, especially in the economics
research and opinion space, ex. Ritholz’s is one, as well as Calculated Risk
and Mish (see my blog
roll), I think I am the only one that performs thorough buy-side forensic analysis
from a macro investor’s perspective - at least the only one that does it for
free.
Seeking Alpha does seem to expose
certain popular writers with a significant amount of exposure, and their coup d’etat
and primary value driver is the deal that they inked with Yahoo Finance to have
their blog’s content carried on Yahoo’s ticker news feeds, which are very heavily
used. Now, being the conceited bastard that I am, I wondered, “If they don’t
want my stuff, and I think my stuff is worth wanting, why don’t I just move to
have my stuff carried directly by the major news feeds and outlets?”. Damn,
could you imagine if Yahoo, Reuters or Bloomberg carried analysis as hard hitting,
thorough and extensive as “GGP
and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage
house” on their newswires?
``There's nothing you can glean from
them that's going to make you any money,'' said Jack
Ablin, who oversees $62 billion as chief investment officer at Harris
Private Bank in Chicago. ``Right now `Wall Street' and `unique research' is an
oxymoron. Unless they're able to do some kind of very unique research, I don't
see any of them coming up with an edge.'' |
I’m thinking that this could literally
transform financial news and reporting, as well as give the traditional rags
the much needed shot in the arm they’ve been craving every since the Web
started devouring their margins and their business models. Now, how do I get
these guys’ attention? Well, I’ve put together a little compilation of popular
(but far from complete) articles, posts and analyses from the blog, and have
date stamped them along with the company that they are referencing. I am not
going to publish performance figures, but you guys (and girls) can figure it
out for yourselves. The factor for determining the results of a short sale is
about -1.9x the change in price. If any of you know one of the major media
publications with a finance interest, use the mail or recommend functions of
the blog to forward them a copy of this article. Of course, I would appreciate any
feedback or comments that my readers have as well.
120
1024x768
Normal
0
false
false
false
EN-US
X-NONE
X-NONE
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:1;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:1;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
border:solid #B3CC82 1.0pt;
mso-border-themecolor:accent3;
mso-border-themetint:191;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-border-insideh:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-border-insideh-themecolor:accent3;
mso-border-insideh-themetint:191;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3FirstRow
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:first-row;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-tstyle-shading:#9BBB59;
mso-tstyle-shading-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-top:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-top-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-top-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-left:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-left-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-left-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-right:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-right-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-right-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-insideh:cell-none;
mso-tstyle-border-insidev:cell-none;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:normal;
color:white;
mso-themecolor:background1;
mso-ansi-font-weight:bold;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3LastRow
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:last-row;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-tstyle-border-top:2.25pt double #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-top-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-top-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-left:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-left-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-left-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-bottom-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-right:1.0pt solid #B3CC82;
mso-tstyle-border-right-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-border-right-themetint:191;
mso-tstyle-border-insideh:cell-none;
mso-tstyle-border-insidev:cell-none;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:normal;
mso-ansi-font-weight:bold;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3FirstCol
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:first-column;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-ansi-font-weight:bold;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3LastCol
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:last-column;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-ansi-font-weight:bold;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3OddColumn
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:odd-column;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-tstyle-shading:#E6EED5;
mso-tstyle-shading-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-shading-themetint:63;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3OddRow
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:odd-row;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-tstyle-shading:#E6EED5;
mso-tstyle-shading-themecolor:accent3;
mso-tstyle-shading-themetint:63;
mso-tstyle-border-insideh:cell-none;
mso-tstyle-border-insidev:cell-none;}
table.MsoTableMediumShading1Accent3EvenRow
{mso-style-name:"Medium Shading 1 - Accent 3";
mso-table-condition:even-row;
mso-style-priority:63;
mso-style-unhide:no;
mso-tstyle-border-insideh:cell-none;
mso-tstyle-border-insidev:cell-none;}
A snapshot of the BoomBustBlog
commentary.
|
Blog post date
|
Companies negatively Blogged
|
Price on Blog Date
|
As of 6/18/2008
|
% change
|
|
|
As I see it, 32 commercial banks and thrifts may
see the feces hit the fan blades
Friday, 23 May 2008 | Reggie Middleton
I
have identified 32 banks that are $@%%. It's really as simple as that. I
have been publishing the research that I used to build my
investment thesis. Thus far we...
+ Full Story
|
|
The Riskiest Bank on the Street
Monday, 11 February 2008 | Reggie Middleton
Key
highlights of my research on the "Riskiest Investment Bank on the
Street": The Riskiest Bank on Wall Street – Morgan Stanley has US$74
billion of Level 3 assets, over 200% of its...
+ Full Story
|
|
More good stuff...
·
The Commercial Real
Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!
·
Doo-Doo bank drill down,
part 1 - Wells Fargo
·
As was warned in this
blog, the S&P downgrade of a monoline insurer reverberated losses
through c
·
Reggie Middleton on the
Street's Riskiest Bank - Update
·
Banks, Brokers, &
Bullsh1+ part 1
·
The first of my
regional bank shorts to be posted to the blog...
·
Lennar Insolvent: Enron
redux???
·
Banks, Brokers, &
Bullsh1+ part 2
·
I know who's holding
the $119 billion dollar bag!
·
Is this the Breaking of
the Bear?
·
The worst is behind us,
unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing
·
The Next Shoe to Drop:
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Counterparty Risk - Beware what lies
beneath!
·
Reggie Middleton on the
Asset Securitization Crisis - Part I
·
Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar�s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and
Other Things of Mystery & Myth
·
A Super Scary Halloween
Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton
·
Bear Stearns conspiracy
theories
·
GGP part 8 - The Final
Anaysis: fire sale of prime properties
·
More on the banking backdrop,
they have never had so many loans
|
|
|
1-Sep-07
|
len
|
$28.37
|
$15.91
|
(43.92%)
|
Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar�s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and Other
Things of Mystery & Myth
|
| |
hov
|
$12.60
|
$6.40
|
(49.21%)
|
Credibility is the Key to
Success for a CEO – Hovnanian has Lost that Key: A letter to Mr. Hovnanian
|
| |
phm
|
$16.91
|
$11.42
|
(32.47%)
|
Commentary
|
| |
ctx
|
$29.08
|
$15.52
|
(46.63%)
|
Thoughts on the US Publicly
Traded Homebuilders, Centex and Beazer show
evidence of credit crunch dismantling their business models, and The Performance of
Centex's Mortgage Originations, or CountryWide Redux, pt III
|
| |
dhom
|
$2.08
|
$0.55
|
(73.56%)
|
Commentary
|
|
1-Sep-07
|
bzh
|
$11.19
|
$5.45
|
(51.30%)
|
Commentary
|
| |
rdn
|
$18.11
|
$2.78
|
(84.65%)
|
Commentary
|
| |
mtg
|
$30.34
|
$10.14
|
(66.58%)
|
Commentary
|
|
1-Sep-07
|
dhi
|
$15.23
|
$12.26
|
(19.50%)
|
Commentary
|
| |
tol
|
$21.84
|
$20.39
|
(6.64%)
|
Commentary
|
| |
bsc
|
$113.84
|
$9.33
|
(91.80%)
|
Is this the Breaking of
the Bear?
|
| |
cfc
|
$19.59
|
$4.75
|
(75.75%)
|
Yeah, Countrywide is
pretty bad, but it ain’t the only one at the subprime party… Comparing
Countryw
|
|
3-Sep-07
|
mbi
|
$61.58
|
$6.00
|
(90.26%)
|
A Super Scary Halloween
Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton
|
| |
abk
|
$64.15
|
$2.10
|
(96.73%)
|
Ambac is Effectively
Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26
Billion in Equity
|
|
8-Sep-07
|
wm
|
$34.06
|
$6.27
|
(81.59%)
|
Yeah, Countrywide is pretty
bad, but it ain’t the only one at the subprime party… Comparing Countryw and Washington Mutual get hits
hard - you were warned here about this in September!
|
|
16-Oct-07
|
ryl
|
$23.96
|
$24.00
|
0.17%
|
What does Reggie
Middleton and Ryland's Upper Management have in Common?
|
|
8-Jan-08
|
ggp
|
$45.75
|
$38.49
|
(15.87%)
|
Extensive: GGP
and the type of research you won’t get from a brokerage
|
|
19-Dec-07
|
ms
|
$49.79
|
$39.40
|
(20.87%)
|
Reggie Middleton on the
Street's Riskiest Bank - Update
|
|
Banks
below are part of the very recent Asset Securitization Crisis Series, click
here for the latest installment
|
|
23-May-08
|
WFC
|
$27.68
|
$25.80
|
(6.79%)
|
Doo-Doo bank drill down,
part 1 - Wells Fargo
|
| |
BPOP
|
$11.22
|
$8.29
|
(26.11%)
|
Doo-Doo
Bank 32 drill down: Part 2 - Popular
|
|
STI
|
$52.99
|
$37.49
|
(29.25%)
|
Doo-Doo
Bank 32 Drill Down - part 3, Sun Trust Bank
|
|
|
KEY
|
$21.87
|
$11.28
|
(48.42%)
|
The
Deep Doo-Doo 32: Key Corp
|
|
|
SNV
|
$11.79
|
$8.85
|
(24.94%)
|
|
|
|
MI
|
$23.08
|
$17.50
|
(24.18%)
|
|
|
|
ASBC
|
$27.96
|
$22.09
|
(20.99%)
|
|
|
|
FCTR
|
|
$30.02
|
|
|
|
|
HBAN
|
$8.99
|
$5.72
|
(36.37%)
|
|
|
|
BBT
|
$32.73
|
$25.19
|
(23.04%)
|
|
|
|
JPM
|
$42.32
|
$39.12
|
(7.56%)
|
|
|
|
USB
|
$32.68
|
$30.42
|
(6.92%)
|
|
|
|
MTB
|
$87.65
|
$76.27
|
(12.98%)
|
|
|
|
BAC
|
$33.28
|
$28.60
|
(14.06%)
|
|
|
|
COF
|
$44.47
|
$42.74
|
(3.89%)
|
|
|
|
NARA
|
$12.44
|
$12.32
|
(0.96%)
|
|
|
|
SASR
|
$26.25
|
$20.33
|
(22.55%)
|
|
|
15-May-08
|
PNC
|
$69.39
|
$57.93
|
(16.52%)
|
The first
of my regional bank shorts to be posted to the blog...
|
|
|
HNBC
|
$13.26
|
$12.83
|
(3.24%)
|
|
|
|
CVBF
|
$10.19
|
$9.46
|
(7.16%)
|
|
|
|
GBCI
|
$19.95
|
$17.80
|
(10.78%)
|
|
|
|
FHN
|
$9.08
|
$8.09
|
(10.90%)
|
|
|
|
NCC
|
$5.65
|
$4.76
|
(15.75%)
|
|
|
|
RF
|
$18.13
|
$11.94
|
(34.14%)
|
|
|
29-Nov-07
|
C
|
$31.52
|
$20.47
|
(35.06%)
|
|
|
|
WB
|
$24.40
|
$17.08
|
(30.00%)
|
|
|
|
ZION
|
$42.81
|
$32.68
|
(23.66%)
|
|
|
|
TCBK
|
$15.34
|
$14.77
|
(3.72%)
|
|
|
|
FITB
|
$19.26
|
$11.09
|
(42.42%)
|
|
|
|
SOV
|
$8.51
|
$8.62
|
1.29%
|
|
| |
GE
|
$28.97
|
$28.61
|
(1.24%)
|
GE: The Uber Bank???
|
According to this Bloomberg article, the boombustblog.com articles more than tripled
the performance of the best performing Wall Street analyst of the past year,
and soundly out-performed ALL
of the analyst and brokerages house recommendations - most of whom had deeply
negative returns and failed to beat the broad markets. To translate the numbers
from the analyzed banking sector (or any other % of stock price decrease above)
into a short sale result after commissions, multiply by a factor of about -1.9x.
I cover much more than banking stocks, which would have given these results a
much higher risk adjusted return if one were to keep score and run the
calculations, which I am not. Sourced from Bloomberg:
Best
Performances
The analysts who made investors the
most money were Charles
Peabody of New York-based Portales Partners LLC and Richard
Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. in Miami, Florida, whose ``sell''
ratings on Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Lehman and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
produced profits of 47 percent and 18 percent, respectively, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup's Colin
Devine made 4.8 percent by rating Ameriprise Financial Inc., the only
brokerage stock he covers, ``sell'' before moving to ``hold'' in July.
``Ten years ago, the expectation was
that analysts would simply avoid the worst excesses,'' Bove said in an
interview. ``The idea was just to beat the benchmark. Today, analysts have got
to make you money in both up and down markets. You don't have any excuse.'' …
… Bove said other analysts may have
made money-losing recommendations because they based their reports on brokerage
earnings rather than examining risk in credit markets.
Losing Influence
Analysts lost influence after 10
securities firms paid $1.4 billion in 2003 to settle allegations that they used
tainted research to promote investment banking clients. Regulation FD, a
Securities and Exchange Commission rule implemented in 2000, prevents companies
from disclosing information to analysts that they don't tell the public. Merrill
ordered its stock advisers this month to boost ``underperform'' ratings to at
least 20 percent of the stocks they follow. Goldman Sachs had ``sells'' on 15
percent of the companies it covered as of April 1. Analyst ``sell''
recommendations across Wall Street are down from 11.1 percent in May 2003,
according to Bloomberg data.
``There's nothing you can glean from
them that's going to make you any money,'' said Jack
Ablin, who oversees $62 billion as chief investment officer at Harris
Private Bank in Chicago. ``Right now `Wall Street' and `unique research' is an
oxymoron. Unless they're able to do some kind of very unique research, I don't
see any of them coming up with an edge.''
Average total returns for investors who
followed the recommendations of analysts for stocks in the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer
Index, measured from June 3, 2007, through June 3, 2008. Returns factored for
investors who bought on ``buy'' ratings, sold on ``hold'' and sold short on
``sell.'' Zero percent returns reflect analysts rating stocks ``hold'' for the designated
period.
image001_copy.png
Click to enlarge
Tweet me!
image001_copy.png
Click to enlarge
