Wednesday, 08 February 2012 19:00

Watch The Evidence Of Global Real Estate Travails Mount As Subscribers Short This Stock Featured

Continuing my predictive analysis of a global real estate relapse, I bring you today's headlines followed by updated research of company that we see slated for probable bankruptcy. Professional and institutional subscribers should download the latest deliverable, which illustrates the likelihood of a bankruptcy in our most recent forensic analysis candidate if it were to go the foreclosure route -Foreclosure Scenario Analysis. This is the professional addendum to the general subscriber analysis released in the post I Present To You The First Probable US Commercial Real Estate Insolvency Of Many To Come. The next deliverable will outline distressed sales of properties, and after that I will make available valuation models on 27 properties in the company's portfolio to inequivocably demonstrate that this company has nowhere to go but down. Ain't math something else? Now on to the news of (yester)day, as reported by Bloomberg. 

BofA Plaza Goes for $235M in Auction

thumb_Reggie_Middleton_on_Street_Signs_FireReggie Middleton Sets CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!! - Reggie Middleton preaching the travails of commercial real estate in 2012/13 on CNBCBank of America Plaza, the tallest tower in the U.S. Southeast, was sold at a public auction today on the steps of the Fulton County Courthouse after landlord BentleyForbes missed mortgage payments.

The noteholder had a winning bid of $235 million, according to attorney Howard Walker of McGuire Woods LLP, who ran the auction. Holders of commercial mortgage bonds took ownership through a “credit bid” placed by LNR Partners, David Levin said in an e-mailed statement. Levin is vice chairman of Miami Beach, Florida-based LNR Property LLC, the parent company of LNR Partners, the tower’s special servicer.

BentleyForbes, based in Los Angeles, paid $436 million to acquire the 55-story Atlanta skyscraper in 2006 from Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Cousins Properties Inc. (CUZ) in the city’s biggest property deal. Since the property market peaked a year after the purchase, the 1.25 million-square-foot (116,000-square-meter) building’s value has tumbled with tenants, including namesake Bank of America, reducing space.

Atlanta has the highest rate of late payments for loans on offices bundled into bonds among the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, at 25.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s an increase from 10.4 percent a year ago and is more than triple the 7 percent national rate.

The $363 million Bank of America Plaza loan became delinquent in December after BentleyForbes stopped making payments. The loan was partly packaged inside JPMCC 2006-LDP9, which was downgraded by Fitch Ratings in December because of expected losses. 

As I've been warning in many of my previous posts, ie. (must reads if you have not already done so):

  1. I Present To You The First Probable US Commercial Real Estate Insolvency Of Many To Come
  2. The Real Estate Recession/Depression is Here, Eurocalypse Style
  3. An Overview of a US REIT Headed Towards Distress
  4. The Greatest Risk To Retail Commercial Real Estate Is? Sovereign Debt! Macro Headwinds! Popping Bubbles! Busted Banks! No, It's The Internet!
  5. Prepare For CRE Crash And Burn Marks At A Shopping Mall Near You

The can kicking of the last 3 years will come to a head once those 5 year debt instruments issued in 2007 come due in 2012 and 2013. Do banks roll over what is an obviously losing proposition or do they take the money and run. Here is an excerpt of the professional/institutional subscriber document Foreclosure Scenario Analysis showing what happens when you get to the end of the road in the neighborhood Can-Kick! Click to enlarge...

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We have culled the portfolio of nearly 30 properties which we individually valued and found who was due for mortgage/loan maturity in the next year. It didn't look pretty...

REIT_bankruptcy_candidate1 

 

 Of course, this is not just an "American" thing. The CRE crush will be felt word-wide, particularly in the EU, UK, and China.

What many do not understand is that the real estate crash of the previous decade is far from over, because The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance. This is true for not only the US, but the EU countries as well. Unlike our European and Asian counterparts, many US investors are much too detached to what occurs overseas, quite possibly from a hubristic, apathetic or even ignorant stance that what happens over there has littel effect on us stateside. Unfortunately, that is not the case. What do you think, pray tell, happens when the liquidity starved, capital deprived, overleveraged banks fail to roll over all of that underwater Eu mortgage debt?

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Investors seeking safety in Germany, the UK and France may truly be in for a rude awakening!

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Last modified on Thursday, 09 February 2012 12:36

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