Financial, Real Estate, Stock Markets Trends and Current Affairs

I've decided to add this topic, as a way for the retail and high net worth investors to see if their advisors are on their toes. These are the type of questions I would as if I paid an investment advisor (feel free to just hit the "email to friend" link the end of the article, or copy and paste).

1. How is is that some are able to produce strong returns in this down market? This guy Reggie Middleton is boasting about 106% return based upon blog research, and a proprietary account (personal investment) return of over 330% for 2008 - all while taking less risk per unit of reward gained than nearly all of the popularly published money managers. His 2007 returns aren't too shabby either. He apparently has a significant amount of detailed documentation to back up his numbers available for free on his blog. How is he able to produce such numbers when most, if not all, of my money managers turned in negative numbers for the year? Is this a fluke? Why, or why not? Will you be able to produce similar numbers?
2. Who do you work for and why? The extreme makeover of Wall Street has seen many firms morph, merge, and disappear - from Neuberger Berman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and others to the big commercial banks which are now basically extensions of the government such as Citibank and the (now) aptly named "Bank of America". I would presume that the meritorious compensation caps and general downturn in Wall Street business in general will put significant pressure on brokers, traders and bankers who have fixed living expenses (mortgages, tuition, etc.) and suddenly extremely variable (to the downside) income. This would make any person anxious to generate more money. How can I be assured, or can I be assured, that I won't be the recipient of unnecessary churn, burn or pushing of inappropriate products? This Reggie Middleton guy posted an article that appears to show the investment performance of sell side brokers to be sub par - Super Brokers form to push Super Broken products to make those with High Net Worth Super Broke.
3. So, if the banks are not truly insolvent, why does Reggie Middleton's research differ so widely from that of the analysts at practically every bank and advisor that I deal with?
   1. 1. About this Bank Plan - It Won't Save the Truly Insolvent Banks!
      2. Is JP Morgan Taking Realistic Marks on its WaMu Portfolio Purchase? Doubtful!
      3. Reggie Middleton on the New Global Macro - the Forensic Analysis of a Spanish Bank
      4. Re: JP Morgan, when I say insolvent, I really mean insolvent
      5. The Doo Doo 32 : the gift that keeps on Giving!
      6. 666: That's the sign of your big broker giving you bad investment advice
      7. The banking backdrop for 2009
      8. A few grim thoughts for the New Year, as I reflect upon the past year
4. Am I being placed with managers because of their brand names? Reggie Middleton has pointed out that many brand name investors have underperformed their "brand" (see Quickly revisiting name brand investors...). At first I simply thought this was another competitive investor talking his book, but upon doing a little digging I noticed that he has a very valid point. Do you have me with any brand name investors who seem to have more "brand" than investment return? How do I determine if I am?

5. What risk is posed by insurers and foreign bank risk? Reggie Middleton has been crowing the systemic risk over-leveraged insurers face with their surplus heavily invested in financial equities and fixed income products. To date, he has successfully called the near demise and share downfall of: the Principal Financial Group ( Principal Financial Group Actionable Intelligence Note - Pro version 2009-01-15 11:18:50 252.74 Kb), the Hartford Insurance Group (Anyone who subscribes to my blog should have earned their initial investment back several times over), MBIA, Ambac, as well as a few other insurers he anticipates taking a fall, which are currently only available to his blog subscribers (ex. As I Continue My Analysis of Global Insurers). His track record has been pretty impressive and causes me to query if my coverage is intact with the insurers that I am with. What fallbacks and protections are available from my state insurance departments? Are there a system of mandatory reserves that will protect me? If Reggie is right about the condition of the insurers, why would the insurance departments consider allowing insurers to release reserves to shore up their operating capital? Doesn't this weaken my position as a policyholder? Why or why not?

6. How significant is my real estate exposure? As a subscriber to Reggie Middleton's blog, I have witnessed him call the fall of both the residential and commercial real estate industries with uncanny accuracy. What is most disturbing about this is that his initial calls are contrary to practically every analyst and pundit that I see or hear. Despite this contrarian perspective, he has proven to be right much more often than not. In considering his accuracy and the rate or deterioration in the CRE retail and office space, should I be concerned about my direct and indirect exposure to the commercial real estate market? I know this is is a cyclical business and we just had a cyclical downturn after 9/11, but is this one going to be particularly severe? Reggie's calls on the downfall of commercial real estate and the share price collapse of the big REITS:
   1. 1. Will the commercial real estate market fall? Of course it will.
      2. Do you remember when I said Commercial Real Estate was sure to fall?
      3. The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!
      4. Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II
      5. General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story Gets Worse
      6. More on GGP: A Granular View of Insider Selling and Lease Rate Growth
      7. GGP part 5 - The Comprehensive Analysis is finally here
      8. GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house
      9. Macerich Forensic analysis: Undervalued REIT or the Commercial Real Estate Bankruptcy
      10. The Macerich Sensitivity Analysis
      11. Commercial REIT update
      12. The next GGP??? A timely actionable note, and a new large REIT that is available to subscribers.