Financial, Real Estate, Stock Markets Trends and Current Affairs

I want all to know that my outlook on the short to medium term has not changed one iota. The last 7 weeks amount to a bear market rally that, although predictable, has gotten way ahead of itself in the face of a total dearth of any fundamental reason to do so.

Short term blips in stock market prices are frustrating to say the least (at least when they move against you), but one must take a longer term view if one is to use my research to its most optimum effect. I have not be wrong very often over the last few years, and I do not believe I am wrong now. If I am wrong, trust me, I will be the first to declare it for that would be healthiest for my net worth.

The REIT that just reported did maintain FFO (and was able to sustain rents short term, contrary to our assumptions) and cut expenses, but it basically just kicked the can down the road. It's problems are still there, and actually have gotten marginally worse as debt to assets and debt to equity, as well as gross debt have increased. We have valued each and every property they have (using the same methodology employed with GGP), thus are fairly comfortable on the valuation in relation to debt. See First Quarter 2009 Results 2009-04-30 12:27:03 381.58 Kb for more.

YTD, the macro situation has progressed more or less as I anticipated, with bank credit metrics and highly leveraged companies suffering and bankruptcies and defaults significantly picking up pace. If things go as I anticipate next week, this rally should be broken, and if not they we will have one of the most highly overpriced equity markets of the past decade. Yes, that includes the dot.com era as well. We all know how that ended...