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Friday, 01 May 2009 05:00

I am now releasing more of my simulation of the Government Stress Tests

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There are a couple of surprises in the stress test findings. I would like to make clear that the expectation of capital raises induced by the government is not necessarily corollary with my valuation of the subject companies' shares. This being said, both processes are inexact and based upon incomplete (ex. only publicly available) data and the capital raise requirements or lack thereof, will definitely affect near term share prices in some form or fashion.

GS Simulated Government Stress Test summary Golmdan Sachs Simulated Government Stress Test summary 2009-05-01 10:35:37 566.46 Kb

I will try to get out WFC, PNC and maybe one other. This weekend. I am personally assuming a bar of 4% for Tangible Capital and 6% for Tier One Capital, although the actual bars have not been released by the government. Therefore, I have calculated the capital requirements over a wide range of TEC and Tier One scenarios.

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