Reggie Middleton Boom Bust Blog

The TCO reports are now available. Here is an excerpt from the Professional level report:

The following table summarizes the valuation of each property through NOI-based and CFAT-based approaches. Individual property valuations will be discussed in detail separately, and released to professional subscribers.

Click to enlarge...

tco_ltvs.png
The two deep underwater properties - The Piers Shops at Caesars and Regency Square were written down to the fair value by recording impairment charge in 3Q09. While the former is being handed over to the lenders for auction proceedings, the latter still remains with the Company and the Company continues to service its debt obligations. Additionally, there are 5 more properties with LTV of more than 80%, making them highly susceptible to reach the negative equity territory in case of further declines in rentals or increase in cap rates.

It is noteworthy that properties with high LTV include a) the new developments during 2005- 2008 phase and b) the existing properties against which additional debt was raised during 2005-2008. Among the properties with LTV of more than 80%, Northlake Mall was the new development in 2005, The Piers Shops was acquired in 2007, while additional debt was raised against International Plaza, The Mall at Short Hills, The Mall at Wellington Green and Waterside Shops during 2005-2008.

Additionally, there are four properties - MacArthur Center, The Mall at Partridge Creek, Stony Point and Westfarms - with LTVs in the "immediately at risk" zone.

So, I am sure many are wondering if these properties are destined to be written off, or what??? Well, let's look at the trend...

cap_rate_trend.png

Sharply rising cap rates combined with...

mall_vacancies.png

Dramatically increasing mall vacancies.

Subscribers can download the full reports here:

TCO Report - Retail 2009-11-27 11:41:15 355.95 Kb

TCO Report - Professional 2009-11-27 11:42:05 663.14 Kb

I will probably be releasing the lenders to these properties in the upcoming week. Any banks that have economic interests in these properties, or others should feel free to reach out to me via phone or email to discuss my research.