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Tuesday, 04 December 2007 05:00

Would you buy Countrywide if all of its bad mortgages were magically wiped off the books?

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I know I wouldn't. I believe there are better investments out there from a risk/reward perspective. Countrywide is in a bit of a jam, and it is not just from bad loans on the books. Looking at the Countrywide Foreclosures Blog (yes, there actually is one), I found this article:14,196 Homes Offered For Sale on Countrywide Financial's Website. I browsed through some of the site, and the small sample of numbers that I looked at seemed accurately reported. It also seems to mesh with Housingtracker.net. Browsing through the comments, someone noticed that the bank and trust offerings were not included. I looked, and at first glance, it seemed like he had a point. Now,it is a lot of work to verify all of this, but if it does pay out (and it looks like it does), Countrywide has nearly 100% of it market capitalization outstanding as REOs - in a market where houses just aren't selling and property values are falling fast. This is totally discounting each and every under performing and underwater mortgage asset they have on their books.

Held by Countrywide Mortgage Co. $ 2,910,876,468
Held by Countrywide Trust and Bank $ 2,969,067,322
Total $ 5,879,943,790
CFC Market Capitalization $ 6,180,000,000
% market cap held as REO 95%

Just some food for thought.

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More in this category: « Reggie's research Dangerously Close to a Money Panic by Martin D. Weiss Ph.D. »

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