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don't forget in 2007 and 2008 when the credit markets led the equity markets by at least 1-2 weeks many many times too. They led both on the way up and on the way down and proved to be a pretty useful indicator as there were big discrepancies between what currency, equity and bond markets were saying back then. That astute investors (like Reggie) were aware of this and were watching CDS and bond spreads to help time short entrance points. So pay attention to where CDS and bond spreads are trading over a 1 week moving average instead of paying attention to daily equity pricing.