Zerohedge reports: Time To Go All-In The "Big Short 3.0"? 80% Of New York Hotels On Verge Of Default. To wit:

Now that hedge funds have finally started piling into the "Big Short 3.0" trade, which as we first explained back in June is basically shifting the CMBS short from malls to hotels (via the overexposed CMBX Series 9 index whose BBB- tranche is the fulcrum), every incremental development in the sector is closely scrutinized.

And judging by the lack of appreciation in the BBB- tranche of the CMBX Series 9 index which has the highest exposure to hotels - despite a very modest rebound earlier this week on vaccine hopes - developments continue to show accelerating deterioration with little sign of recovery on the horizon.

A recent tailwind blast for the CMBX 9 shorts came from a September report from NorthStar according to which, without aid 74% percent of US hotels said they expect to lay off more employees, with a whopping two thirds of properties warning they won't be able to last another six months at the current projected revenue and occupancy levels. Needless to say, should two-thirds of the US hotel industry fold, shorting the CMBX S9 BBB- could well be the most profitable (institutionally sized) short in recent history when the Fed has effectively made shorting impossible.

Since then it's only gotten worse for the hotel sector, which as even the FT now writes has hit New York hotel industry especially hard with four out of five properties underpinning commercial mortgage bonds now on the verge of default.

Those who follow me know that I have been ringing this alarm since the spring. Again, to wit:

With Every Hedge Fund and Their Mother Crowding Into the Big Short 3.0, Remember Who Warned You 1st, in 2007 and 2020!

A quick refresher....

• BoomBustBlog As the Most Predictive Media Property In the World? Comparisons to Mainstream, Financial and Business Publications, Pt. 1 Warning of GGP and commercial real estate in 2007. Warning of Bear Stearns in 2008.
• BoomBustBlog As the Most Predictive Media Property In the World? Comparisons to Mainstream, Financial and Business Publications, Pt. 2 - Bankruptcy of Ambac ...: Look at our call vs ALL of mainstream media

• Despite Record Home Sales and Price Gains, The Real Estate Apocalypse Is Still Upon Us - Warning earlier this year, 2020

• Is this the Breaking of the Bear?  Warning of bankruptcy early in 2008 (January) before ANYONE else had a clue - maybe even Bear Stearns itself 
  
• Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of tangible equity on the street following BSC. The question is, “Can they monetize those hedges?”. I’m curious to see how the options on Lehman will be priced tomorrow. I really don’t have enough. Goes to show you how stingy I am.I bought them before Lehman was on anybody’s radar and I was still to cheap to gorge. Now, all of the alarms have sounded and I’ll have to pay up to participate or go in short. There is too much attention focused on Lehman right now. ) | I just got this email on Lehman from my clearing desk Monday, March 17th, 2008 by Reggie Middleton| Lehman stock, rumors and anti-rumors that support the rumors Friday, March 28th, 2008 | It appears that I should have dug deeper into Lehman! May 2008