Displaying items by tag: S&P 500

Following the empirical evidence that banks share price moves are outstripping their fundamental performance, I have decided to run the same analysis with REITs that have beat the S&P 500. In the chart below, General Growth Properties had to be stripped out since it had a 3,000% return, it made the rest of graph participants illegible. Click to enlarge.

 reit_over_broad_market.png

The metrics used to segregate the companies were:
  1. TTM NOI / Current EV               
  2. Y-o-Y Growth in Rental Income               
  3. Q-o-Q growth in Rental Income           
  4. Y-o-Y Growth in NOI
  5. Q-o-Q growth in NOI
  6. Y-o-Y Growth in FFO
  7. Q-o-Q growth in FFO
  8. EBITDA/Interest expenses
  9. Total debt-to-Gross real estate investments
  10. Total Debt-to-Current EV
  11. Trailing 12 months EBITDA
  12. Trailing 12 months interest expenses
  13. Trailing 12 months NOI               
  14. Plus a whole host of other performance related criteria. All in all, very rich and informative model for those interested in the space.

A heat map was created to visualize the trend in fundamentals for those companies whose performance bested that of the broad market. As one may have guessed, the heat map is throwing off a lot of red, with implied cap rates (NOI/EV) going up as quarter over quarter net operating income declines in the face of both rising share prices and drastically falling rents and land values. Below is a snapshot of the heat map. Although this is a subscriber download, there is definitely something to be gleaned from trends highlighted below. Twilight zone, here we come...

Following the empirical evidence that banks share price moves are outstripping their fundamental performance, I have decided to run the same analysis with REITs that have beat the S&P 500. In the chart below, General Growth Properties had to be stripped out since it had a 3,000% return, it made the rest of graph participants illegible. Click to enlarge.

 reit_over_broad_market.png

The metrics used to segregate the companies were:
  1. TTM NOI / Current EV               
  2. Y-o-Y Growth in Rental Income               
  3. Q-o-Q growth in Rental Income           
  4. Y-o-Y Growth in NOI
  5. Q-o-Q growth in NOI
  6. Y-o-Y Growth in FFO
  7. Q-o-Q growth in FFO
  8. EBITDA/Interest expenses
  9. Total debt-to-Gross real estate investments
  10. Total Debt-to-Current EV
  11. Trailing 12 months EBITDA
  12. Trailing 12 months interest expenses
  13. Trailing 12 months NOI               
  14. Plus a whole host of other performance related criteria. All in all, very rich and informative model for those interested in the space.

A heat map was created to visualize the trend in fundamentals for those companies whose performance bested that of the broad market. As one may have guessed, the heat map is throwing off a lot of red, with implied cap rates (NOI/EV) going up as quarter over quarter net operating income declines in the face of both rising share prices and drastically falling rents and land values. Below is a snapshot of the heat map. Although this is a subscriber download, there is definitely something to be gleaned from trends highlighted below. Twilight zone, here we come...

Thursday, 07 January 2010 00:00

Someone Is Paying a Lot for High Priced Doo Doo

In reviewing the banks that were originally included in the Doo Doo 32 (a list of likely doomed banks created in the spring of 2008), I decided to have a team take the devil's advocate perspective (an exercise that we normally pursue) and attempt to build a bullish case for the sectors that I viewed bearishly yet have outperformed the S&P and escaped profitable shorting during the last three quarters. The results are illuminating.

Below is a list of shortlisted banks that have reported higher returns relative to S&P 500 between the period March 9, 2009 and January 5, 2010 - the bear market rally of 2009. The methodology that we followed for this short listing is as follows:

·         We took out a list of banks that are domiciled in the US and have market capital of more than $500 million and current share price of more than $10.

·         Next we calculated returns for each bank and S&P 500 between period March 9, 2009 and January 5, 2010.

Thursday, 07 January 2010 00:00

Someone Is Paying a Lot for High Priced Doo Doo

In reviewing the banks that were originally included in the Doo Doo 32 (a list of likely doomed banks created in the spring of 2008), I decided to have a team take the devil's advocate perspective (an exercise that we normally pursue) and attempt to build a bullish case for the sectors that I viewed bearishly yet have outperformed the S&P and escaped profitable shorting during the last three quarters. The results are illuminating.

Below is a list of shortlisted banks that have reported higher returns relative to S&P 500 between the period March 9, 2009 and January 5, 2010 - the bear market rally of 2009. The methodology that we followed for this short listing is as follows:

·         We took out a list of banks that are domiciled in the US and have market capital of more than $500 million and current share price of more than $10.

·         Next we calculated returns for each bank and S&P 500 between period March 9, 2009 and January 5, 2010.

Monday, 22 June 2009 00:00

Charting Op-Ed from the Blog Readers

Further chartng Op-Ed from the blog readers is available below. The usual disclaimers apply, and this is 3rd party opinion for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect my thoughts or opinions. 

First Chart: S&P 500 - Hourly Chart (March 5, 2009 - June 11, 2009)

The chart below of the S&P 500 breaks down the up move from the March 9th lows to yesterday's potential breakout failure.  There is an initial strong bull move that lasts 2months, March and April, followed by consolidation in a 50 point range during May trading. June 1st there is small breakout  of the May base, followed by more consolidating action. June 11th the S&P tries to breakout of its June base, however there is negative divergence (-D) not only highlighted technically by the RSI, but also seen in the financials (notably regionals, mortgage finance and insurance) that did not rally with the market in June, resulting in a potential breakout failure.

Monday, 22 June 2009 00:00

Charting Op-Ed from the Blog Readers

Further chartng Op-Ed from the blog readers is available below. The usual disclaimers apply, and this is 3rd party opinion for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect my thoughts or opinions. 

First Chart: S&P 500 - Hourly Chart (March 5, 2009 - June 11, 2009)

The chart below of the S&P 500 breaks down the up move from the March 9th lows to yesterday's potential breakout failure.  There is an initial strong bull move that lasts 2months, March and April, followed by consolidation in a 50 point range during May trading. June 1st there is small breakout  of the May base, followed by more consolidating action. June 11th the S&P tries to breakout of its June base, however there is negative divergence (-D) not only highlighted technically by the RSI, but also seen in the financials (notably regionals, mortgage finance and insurance) that did not rally with the market in June, resulting in a potential breakout failure.

For those who have been paying attention, it appears that the momentum of the insane bank rally is running out of steam. I have been paying particular attention to the small bank detailed in the most recent of the banking intelligence notes for subscribers (BOK 1Q09 Bank Intelligance Note 1Q09 2009-05-07 06:34:52 460.74 Kb). This particular bank took full advantage of the liberal tricks that regulators have laid at management's feet. The result, strong earnings for the first quarter, powered by pure economic losses! This is bound to come back to bite them in the arse, and when it does it should be interesting. On that note, the next series in the charting analysis from the BoomBustBlog readership. Again, this is for illustrative purposes only and I warranty it in no form or fashion as to accuracy, completeness or content. 

 Click to enlarge graphic after "read more" to enlarge.